OPINION
Earthquake Watch Follow Up / Update March 19-21 – Baja Calif/LA, Ryukyu Islands-Japan, Southern Iran and more
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SEE UPDATES BELOW AND IN THE THREAD
New Coronal holes formations could be Geoeffective March 19-21
Main areas and mapped regions sit 25-29 Degrees North Latitude, best fit regions are : Gulf Of California, Japan or Southern Iran. Possible magnitude 7.5
San Andreas fault line could also receive an event March 21-22 from trailing coronal hole if no large earthquake has been recorded. potential magnitude is unknown and will depend on proceeding events.
Southern Hemisphere coronal hole situated 18-22 Degrees Latitude could produce a significant earthquake March 19-20, likely areas Vanuatu/Loyalty Islands which are 90% symmetrically mapped. a 7.2 magnitude event is possible
Christchurch -- Wellington may receive a 5.5 -- 5.8 magnitude earthquake March 19-20 due to a northward moving southern polar coronal hole creating a solar ripple/fracture to 43 degrees Latitude.
Excellent information websites for solar watchers and researchers
http://solarimg.org/artis/
http://www.solen.info/solar/
http://www.solarmonitor.org/
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
http://helioviewer.org/
Intro music used is royalty Free and created by Kevin MacLeod
The spinning world globe at the start of the video is a free program called Earthquake3D
The use of images and voice from this video may NOT be used by another party__________
Volcano / Earthquake Watch March 14-19
Significant Geomagnetic Storms was observed during March 11, accompanied with powerful solar winds this new geomagnetic activity is expected to be geoeffective March 14-16 and could produce two large 7.5 magnitude earthquakes during this watch.
Northern Hemisphere is the main area of watch, coronal hole targeted sits 29-33 degrees north latitude. main areas at risk for a potential 7.5 magnitude earthquake are : Baha California/LA, Ryukyu Islands-Japan, Southern Iran, less probable are the regions Sichuan China, Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge or Volcanic activity in the Canary Islands Region(La Palma)
Southern Hemisphere watch has a coronal hole 5-9 degrees South Latitude, possible regions at risk are Banda Sea, Flores Sea or the Kepulauan Babar region-Indonesia
Large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere puts the New Zealand region at risk(41-44degrees) during the March 13-14 time frame if solar winds drop significantly. presently solar winds are at 5.50km/s and if they remain at these levels for 24-36 hours the area should not receive a significant earthquake.
See video Volcano / Earthquake Watch March 14-19 by clicking Full Story link below
Astrotometry is also reporting similar events -
Astrotometry Log March 12th, 2011 approximately 22:06 UTC at the time of this recording.
Earthquake Watch thru March 19th, 2011
Astrotometry of recent solar activity indicates a major seismic event is possible in the coming days. A disturbance associated with a moderately sized hole in the solar corona is expected to arrive around March 13th. Seismic adjustments will most likely occur in the hours before an associated increase in solar wind speed or in the wake of the disturbance. The fractal origin of the disturbance may indicate upcoming seismic activity near 40 degrees south latitude. A shock above 6.5 in magnitude is expected, an event over 6.8 in magnitude is considered likely, and an earthquake over 7.8 in magnitude is thought to be possible because of potentially complimentary trajectories of coronal mass ejections.
Regions which could be effected, ordered by matches to known correlative criteria:
Latitude correlation with seismically active regions, form similarity with the disturbance, and recent seismic activity may indicate the south Pacific islands near New Zealand.
Latitude correlation with seismically active regions, and mirrored form similarity with the disturbance, may indicate southern South America.
The location of the event is unknown.
Already elevated solar wind speeds may indicate the event will more likely occur in the later days of the watch. The most likely days for the event are March 13th, 18th and 19th 2011.
This scientific log is a service of the Cosabio Virtual Institute. The analysis provided is for informational and collaborative purposes and is not intended to prompt emergency response. Emergency managers are encouraged to use all available data, including other earthquake indicators in consideration of appropriate action. This watch may use data products from NASA, SOHO, SDO, USGS, NRL, NOAA, The University of Maryland, Stanford University, SolarMonitor.org, SpaceWeather.Com and Google none of which are responsible for it’s contents. Results of this watch will be annotated at the end of this video.
Note: Nearly 10 earthquakes have occurred today alone in Nevada, Alaska and Idaho. Check out the USGS data by clicking HERE to monitor quake activity in your area.
UPDATE X1
Geologist Predicts Major N. America Earthquake Imminent!
UPDATE X2
AS OF 11:16 AM EST
Sierra la Laguna, Baja California, Mexico Seismograph
UPDATE X3
‘The Big One’ Is Coming
Japan Disaster Underscores Need For Preparedness
(The following is the first in a series of articles outlining the risk of a major earthquake in Southern California, the damage it would be expected to cause and how to cope with its aftermath.)
As they watch the morbidly fascinating images of toppled buildings, surging tsunami waves and exploding nuclear plants on their TV screens, mountain residents may naturally be wondering about the prospects for a major quake shaking Southern California.
The answer: A quake of a significant magnitude is highly likely on the San Andreas Fault-whose southern branch passes just a few miles from our mountain communities-within 30 years.
In numerous scientific studies, seismologists agree that a quake along that fault is years overdue, based on historic patterns. When it comes, they say, the consequences will be dire, even in a state that prides itself on being seismically attuned.
Click the hyperlink embedded in headline to read the full story.
Earthquakes, Earthworms and Earth Changes
Researchers say it’s probably a little bit of both. Plenty of studies have shown that some animals can sense major changes in the weather. Worms, for instance, are known to flee rising groundwater. Birds are known to be sensitive to air pressure changes, and often hunker down before a big storm. And in Florida, researchers studying tagged sharks say they flee to deeper water just before a big hurricane arrives. They also may be sensing the air and water pressure changes caused by the big storm.
“I think these animals are more attuned to their environment than we give them credit for,” Michelle Heupel, a scientist at the Mote Marine Laboratory who worked on the shark study, has told reporters. “When things change, they may not understand why it’s happening, but the change itself may trigger some instinct to move to an area that is safer for them.”
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14 Comments
http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml
These graphs were all black world wide but 3 Friday, that being South Pole..the black graphs began to clear late Monday night.
They are now beginning to get activity, more than yesterday, and are updated every 30 minutes.
http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml
These graphs were all black world wide but 3 Friday, that being South Pole..the black graphs began to clear late Monday night.
They are now beginning to get activity, more than yesterday, and are updated every 30 minutes.
These graphs are pretty reliable…I know for a fact the hour a disturbance is recorded on Waverly, Tn, the same activity shows on Indiana…those are south and north of my home.
I also notice the activity on most all graphs coincides to the hour activity world wide.
I watch as often as I can—I know, Japan only had 6 minutes on the tsunami, but maybe we get more warning on earthquakes??
JJ – if you have time, and are keeping up w/the charts, would you post updates in this thread? Monitoring this situation is most important as you well know.
Magnitude-9.0 Earthquake Possible In Two U.S. Locations
A massive earthquake on par with the recent catastrophic seismic event in Japan could happen in two places in the United States, scientists say.
Geophysicists estimate that the Cascadia Subduction Zone, an intersection of tectonic plates just off the northwestern coast that stretches from the northern tip of California up to Canada, is capable of generating an earthquake with a magnitude as high as a 9.0.
The last time the area shook that hard was 300 years ago. “There were hardly any people living on the Pacific Northwest Coast in 1700,” said Heidi Houston, a seismologist at the University of Washington’s Department of Earth & Space Sciences. “But it generated a huge tsunami that traveled to Japan and destroyed coastal villages there. The Japanese records show that the causative earthquake could only be our Cascadia Subduction Zone and it had to have been a magnitude-9.0.”
By analyzing sedimentary deposits in low-lying areas along the coast, paleoseismologists have determined that large tsunamis (almost definitely produced by large earthquakes) strike the Pacific Northwest about every 500 years, give or take 200 years. Because the last one happened in 1700, “that means sometime in the next 400 years it will happen again,” Houston told Life’s Little Mysteries, a sister site to LiveScience.
Scientists aren’t able to provide a more specific time frame than that. They know what conditions must be present in an area to lead to massive earthquakes, but, according to Nathan Bangs, a geophysicist at the University of Texas, “it’s hard to do useful predictions.”
“The low-lying areas have deposits that give a record of repeated history of tsunami inundations, and how big they were. That means you may know the likelihood on the order of hundreds of years, but it doesn’t give the likelihood in the next few years,” Bangs explained.
A 9.0 earthquake is also possible in Alaska, the most earthquake-prone state in the U.S. In 1964, the Aleutian fault separating the Pacific and North American plates ruptured near the city of Anchorage, resulting in a 9.2-magnitude earthquake – the second largest ever recorded on a seismograph.
The San Andreas Fault, commonly perceived to be more dangerous than the Cascadia Fault because of the proximity of several major California coastal cities, is not actually capable of generating a 9.0-magnitude earthquake. “The biggest one there would be just under 8.0,” said Houston.
http://www.livescience.com/13274-magnitude-9-0-earthquake-locations.html
12:00 pm central, Baja, Cal…same graph..no change….
For those who wish to maintain a view updated every hour…I use this..
http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml
Kiribati, a little island in the Atlantic is a mess, south of Japan, north of New Zealand and Austraia where activity has been in last 6 months?? Right on the equator?
What is it about the Pacicic??
I’ll be watching this baby May 20th when the NLE is scheduled for NM area.
If you check the graphs having most activity, they are ALL little islands in the Pacific region!!
Quite strange??
I haven’t checked the graphs since 11ish this morning. Why do you say this is strange? Would like to learn your understanding since you follow these charts daily.
Bob Nations, Jr., the Director of Shelby County Office of Preparedness, says that since the lack of preparation exposed by Hurricane Katrina, he is “preparing for the catastrophic event” in his six-county jurisdiction.
Nations admitted that after a major quake, Tennessee’s infrastructure and response capabilities “would get overwhelmed fairly quickly.”
There are 15 nuclear power plants in the New Madrid fault zone — three reactors in Alabama — that are of the same or similar design as the site in Japan experiencing problems.
The USGS report predicts that a major quake would create horrific scenes like something out of a science fiction movie, potentially cutting the Eastern part of the country off from the West in terms of vehicular traffic and road commerce.
“The older highways and railroad bridges that cross the Mississippi River, as well as older overpasses, would likely be damaged or collapse in the event of a major New Madrid earthquake,” according to USGS.
In September, FEMA’s associate administrator for Response and Recovery, William Carwile, told a Senate panel that FEMA has five regional groups planning for possible earthquake responses, but a major quake along the New Madrid fault line could displace 7.2 million people and knock out 15 bridges. The response would require 42,000 first responders from local firefighters to the Pentagon.
Another study by the Mid-America Earthquake Center last year estimates that nearly 750,000 buildings would be damaged, 3,000 bridges would potentially collapse, 400,000 breaks and leaks to local pipelines and $300 billion in direct damage and $600 billion in indirect losses would occur.
Read the rest – http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-fault-lines-siesmic-concern/story?id=13140354&page=2
When following after Friday morning catastrophy, only 3 graphs had any white showing…VERY, VERY little black striations of any kind…discussing with dh I concluded that Antarctica and Florida had one faction in common..aren’t they surrounded by water and float in the ocean(well in a sense)??
So, following this line of thought— and I’m just trying to find a reason for those three to be excluded, and it’s a wild one–I find now the black striations so bold ARE the little islands in the Pacific surounded by water.
Just my observation,,,not an ounce of scientific background or research.
And i just read abuot the infrastructure in Tennessee, and I can bet Kentucky and most states won’t fare any better if quakes begin to cause disturbances.
And, pooh!!! I can spell; an ex-teacher. Just can’t type when three different things going!!
http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml
BU–TEE–FULL…If we can believe what we see.
It’s awfully quiet, eh? Let’s hope the graphs stay this way…
http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml
Check out the graphs…all are black.
All graphs, even China, are clear..
http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml
No aerosol sprays here today.
Wonder if there is any correlation??